Welcome back Zulu-traders. Well I promised a juicy query and here it is.To your left, please find the top-20 providers in the Zulutrade database for maximum number of consecutive trades without a 100-pip drawdown. This requires some explanation, so bear with me.
The Provider and Id columns are pretty self-explanatory.
The Trades column is the number of consecutive trades without an intra-trade drawdown exceeding 100 pips.
The TotalPips column is the total profit for that provider when run through my 2-lot, 180-pip filter. I should point out that the stop might as well be 100 for this query since these providers are so good at keeping losses less than 100 pips.
The MaxDD column is the maximum drawdown when using that provider when run through my 2-lot, 180-pip stop filter. Note that this figure is for a closed-trade basis and this represents the total amount you would have lost from the highest high to lowest low when trading that provider with my 2-lot, 180-pip filter.
Finally, the profit factor represents the amount of profit earned as percentage of drawdown encountered. The higher this number the better. Also, note that a few of the providers have 100% wins, therefore the profit factor is undefined since there are no losses.
You can do your own diligence on these providers. But I have my picks, so check back later for my own providers to test in demo accounts.
PS - No sooner did I post than Cheetah had a long GBP/USD trade that hit my 120-pip stop. So much for his 410-trade history of trades with less than 100-pip drawdown!
ReplyDeleteIts a healthy reminder of the reality of trading - there's always a bigger drawdown ahead.
Fortunately, TheKillerz is having a good week and even with that loss, i'm still up for the week. But there are a few days left, and anything can happen. Stay tuned...
I think of drawdown not as defined by the loss amount, but by the intra-trade drawdown (Zulu refers to this as 'low'). For example, King Trade in your table shows -2 as the drawdown because he had a loss trade of 2 pips. But he had a trade with a -115 'low', ie intra-trade drawdown. What I'm really interested in is the average 'low' per trade (standard deviation on that would also be nice!), which would provide a measure of (1) ability of the trader to time trades, and (2) length of time in trade. Average length of time in trade would most certainly be highly correlated with the average intra-trade drawdown unless markets were extremely volatile. I would prefer a trader who can pick the right time to trade so that your money (and credit) are not exposed for lengthy periods. Exposure=risk in my book.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, thanks for all your great work again, this is just more food for thought.
I just pulled Cheetah from my live account. I am disappointed I had to do that but considering Nov. results low gains, 24 open trades at same time today, and hitting my stop today, I don't know that I care to have him in my real account. He certainly is no TheKillerz.
ReplyDeleteI can't see the chart for some reason here at work but I think Tcxmon may have miss labeled draw down column? Should be an average loss column?
At any rate I don't typically calculate the average draw down. I don't think it is bad to make that calculation as it can likely help you pinpoint a good safe stop, especially if you calculate the standard deviation.
I do also agree that it could be a good look at a signal providers ability to time their trades as well.
Redford-
ReplyDeleteCorrect, you have "Intra-Trade" drawdown (what Zulu calls "Low" then you have drawdown on a closed-trade basis. The MaxDD column above is on a closed-trade basis because the stop-loss value used in the simulation caps the max risk per trade at -180 pips per trade. If a stop is hit, that will be reflected in the MaxDD column since it will reduce the equity by that much.
Agreed that shorter trades are less risky than longer ones. If you want to see a good example of surgical, short duration trading, check out TheKillerz in the past 2 days.
Thanks for reading and for the kind words,
Chris
JT-
ReplyDeleteI haven't given up on Cheetah yet. He came back and picked up a quick 8 pips since the -120 pip stop was hit. Drawdown happens, and you have to expect it.
Overall, he's -38 pips in my account since I added him which isn't too bad. But with 15 trades and -38 pips you have to wonder who's making the money here. His average winner has been in the under 10-pips range which isn't enough to overcome the eventual drawdown.
Anyway, by my count he has over 270 live followers, so he has a lot of incentive to trade his way out of this drawdown. We'll see,
Chris
Hi Chris, thanks for all the hard work, just wanted to come back and make a comment as your site is very informative and has certainly helped me along the way.
ReplyDeleteI am now set up with a micro account (alpari for now - are you still assessing the micro providers?)
I started off with Cheetah, 3A, thekillerz, kingtrade.
I have removed cheetah and 3a after only a couple of days or so as I didt like the way they were trading. Opening far too many trades and leaving them seemingly endlessly to come good - not my cup of tea even if in the long run they come off. I understand I can limit the number of trades taken but prefer to use signal providers that can get there without as much risk.
I have replaced them with trendcatcher and the hunter - both only 80% winners but they look to time trades and get in and out quickly (they dont open multiple trades and wait for them to come good) and are not afraid to cut positions (hence only 80%winners) that move against them whilst still maintaining a profit...
I have weighted the trades to reflect my style so as an example
Trendcatcher 5 lot multiplier used (trades GBP/JPY so reduced lots)
Hunter 10 lots multiplier used
killerz and king 20 lots multiplier used
I think thekillerz has amazing timing and am convinced, over time, that he/she will provide a great return although a little dissapointed to have a 2 lot * 120 pip loss this morning although he is already redeeming the position.
Like you I dont want to jinx any of the signal providers but after watching the traders can see some great skill being utilised.
As per the above comments I too would love to see a comparison of the true drawdown (intratrade) and am confident that this will provide a better idea of risk/reward and there will be a place fairly high up for the killerz.....
thanks again
Setec
Just had a quick look at the low and std dev for the regular handfull (using all ZT data)
ReplyDeleteChris if this is infringing pls feel free to remove / replace, just a quick view preceeding your data
avg intra avg closed stdev of
trade DD (low) the DD (low)
Thekillerz -52 27 40
Cheetah -25 18 24
King Trade -18 21 20
Trendcatcher -44 10 63
Praetorian -34 17 47
student -1076 505 3516
elitecapital -57 22 83
coolie1997 -48 22 61
hunter - 7 12 10
interested to see how cheetah comes out based on just 2 lots as he does seem to average in...
Hunter? seems quite nimble...
cheers
setec
Hello!
ReplyDeleteNews not very good.The Cheetah exceeded your limit. TheKillerz, unfortunately, also lost at least 117pips.TheKillerz sell GBP / USD and The Cheetah-by this. This is lock.
Hi Chris,
ReplyDeletethanks for all your hard work here, I have been demo trading various zulutraders since May 2009 with a view to diversifying my trading income. the results so far have bee terrible. I use a 1,2,1 configuration and try to use only traders that enable me to put a stoploss no bigger than 50 pips on them.
I was about to give up then I saw your recent post that alerted me to the new facility "traders that trade their own funds" so thanks for that.
I trade manually for a full time living myself using support and resistance and don't believe any good trader using the 60 minute charts or lower should need more than a 40 pip stop loss.
Most of these so called traders on zt are accidents waiting to happen. Scalping a few pips here and there but allowing 200 - 500 pip drawdown is suicide and will almost always blow their accounts.
Anyway fwiw I added Ferrari to my signal providers and bingo 22 winners 3 losers since Dec 2nd, nett about 230 pips profit, settings 1,2,1 stop loss 30.
Keep up the good work Chris and thanks again.
Hi Chris,
ReplyDeleteI should add to my last post that I have never traded live funds on ZT due to the enormous risk but continued to test in the hope that ZT would clean up their act.
I will continue to test more of the traders theat trade live funds. I will deffinately give Ferrari a go with a live account if he continues to perform and trade in the SAFE manner he has so far this month.
Thanks again.
Great comments Dazzer, Short term traders on zulutrade that trade several times a day 'are' likely using 1H or less charts. They grab roughly 10 or even less pips a trade, and when a trade does not work they let it blow to exaggerated draw downs. "Accidents waiting to happen", for sure.
ReplyDeleteWe all know that the internet is full of people looking for ways to make a $. Be it referrals, or affiliate junk, or whatever. I think a lot of those people have found their way to Zulutrade and are using it as such. They probably found a method or two on the internet and a free charting program and now call themselves traders. Look at some of the signal providers that have over 10 or 20 open signal provider accounts, its obvious what they are doing.
Tcxmon and I have been hitting zulutrade pretty hard to weed out those people and find the real traders. (very hard to do, I have to say, as it would appear we are not finding much). I don't know about Chris, but it is starting to get to the point where I can look at the first two pages of a signal providers history and already know I would not use them. :)