Welcome back Zulu-fans.Reader Rossco was kind enough to leave us his provider picks in his comment to my post Lot-Limit and Stop-Loss results a post a few days back.
To your left find a report showing the results when those providers were run through by 2-lot 180-pip stop filter. A few things jump out, but they can be deceiving, so let's go through his picks one by one and come back to the graphic as needed.
His first pick is King Trade who looks pretty good. He's been on the Zulu system for about 4 months with 255 trades and a max drawdown of -115 pips and I can only see a single 2-pip loss in his entire 4 month history! That gives him profit factor of 306 which is pretty much off the charts. If ever there was a provider worthy of a demo account, its King Trade.
Next up is one2three. One look at his profile page indicates he has over twice as much in open losses as his has in closed profits. This means he just opens trades and wait for them to come back which is not a workable strategy for me.
Next up is SFForex who at first glance who has a max drawdown of -113,410 pips and a closed profit of 63,789 pips. This is the very definition of a risky provider where drawdown exceeds profits and I have to look elsewhere for that reason.
Next candidate is 1NEARD_X. This provider appears to have some promise, but there are large drawdowns (-380 pips) is his history, and he's only actually closed trades on 3 different days on the Zulu system. In fact it looks like he's actually made only 3 distinct trades on the Zulu system and the last of the 3 was basically the same trade 47-times over. This guy is definitely playing with funny money and i'm not amused.
Next victim is GETTIN PAID!!! who went negative this past week after being up almost 3000 pips. He got crushed by a series of losses in a long GBP/JPY trade which got stopped out down -500 pips. Since 500 pips is the system default stop, its clear he just put these trades on and walked away. I feel sorry for this provider having taken some real 500-pip losses myself.
Next up is *Instant Cafe Records* which is pretty creative name. Unfortunately, he has 1,200 pips in open losses for his 2,300 pips in closed profits which is a non-starter for me. Next please.
Next provider is JEDI42 who has a 95% win rate. Unfortunately, his largest drawdown is -1082 pips for his 669 pips in closed profits. This isn't really that bad, so i'm pretty picky nowdays so i'm going to have to pass.
Next case is SharePips who was also riding high lately until a pair of 500 pips losses came along and cut his profits by 40%. Another case of leaving losses for -500 pips (similar to GETTIN PAID!!!!).
Next up is Winpips4Us. This provider seems to have some promise with a 95% win rate but with an average win size of 5 pips, if this guy take more than a 5-pip profit, its apparently by accident. I have to see wins greater than the 20-pip range to make it worth my while. A good example is TheKillerz who averages closer to 30 pips per trade. Otherwise, its like picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. Sure you'll make some profits, but sooner or later, you'll get steamrolled.
Next up is TORA! TORA! TORA! who took it on the chin this week with a serious of -500 pips losses. This provider lost 6,500 pips this week. And I thought I had a bad week on Zulutrade!
Next up is FxTeddyBear who looks pretty good, but hasn't traded since July 15, 2009. So we'll have to disqualify him on the basis of inactivity. Of course, with how well I have been doing with Zulutrade, non-trading would be a preferable strategy.
Last up is auto-fx who hasn't traded since 9/15/2009. This isn't because he hasn't been active on Zulu, its just that he has a boatload of aliases and just moves between his 43 different aliaes and takes profits when he has them. Fun for him, not much fun for me. He's making more money with SURFING who is currently #2 on the Zulutrade system for "Sum of Live Trade" as shown on my post Top Providers by Live Trade 11/20/2009.
So the only provider that comes out of this evaluation with a demo is King Trade who looks like a screaming winner. Enjoy your Saturday and check back later.
Trading one lot with KingTrade would have netted $54,800 since August 12, 2009, with a very low drawdown. I'm surprised that you hadn't discovered this trader before now, inasmuch as you download and analyse the reams of Zulu data. I'm also surprised I didn't find him either, because I have spent a significant amount of time checking performance at the Zulu site.
ReplyDeleteYou indicate profit factor of 306 based on a single 2 pip loss. Now didn't you earlier calculate a negative profit factor for Zulu overall basing the calculation on profit vs drawdown? What would be the equivalent for KingTrade? Perhaps I'm confused about profit factor and misread the earlier post, wonder if you could define what profit factor is, thanks.
I think I can guarantee a massive drawdown for KingTrade as soon as I assign him to my account.
Redford-
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading and for the comment.
The profit factor is based on the drawdown as calculated by the highest high to lowest low (as counted by pips) on a closed-trade basis.
Its an off-the-scale high number for King Trade because this provider has only one loss of 2-pips during his entire history. It doesn't take into account intra-trade drawdown because that's taken into account by the -180 pip stop loss value imposed by the filter.
Once the provider hits a -180 pip stop, the ratio becomes (613/180) or 3.4 which brings him well back to earth.
Thanks again for reading and pointing this out. Tread carefully,
Chris
Hi TCXmon
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis and appreciate the time and detail you have shared on the Zulu experience.... Couple of questions if you dont mind.
1) just searched micro lots - http://www.forexmicrolot.com - fxcm looks ok but not traded with them and it does state individual self traded accounts so may not work with zulu...would need to check
2) couple of signal providers I think look interesting that I cant find any mention of on your site
GFX - low drawdown and good avg pips
RACsave - steady performer although high dd (another alias of isunia so probably similar short comings)
Euroasian capital - bit irratic but has been trading for 83 weeks and doesnt seem to fall into the bad habits of most ztraders....
Would appreciate your comments on the above traders if you have ran them through your lot and stop loss analysis.
In principal I like the idea of zt but in principal the signal providers are being paid per trade so they will cut profitable trades (or at the leastcut them and open new ones) as they get paid more to do that than to leave them running. Most also seem to leave bad trades running until the come back to profit (unless they get stopped out 500 pips) as this makes their performance look much better (without the clarity of your indepth analysis).
good luck
thanks
setec
Alpari also do a micro account and their platform looks ok and uses mt4
ReplyDeletesetec
and take a look at the following site for a comparison of accounts
ReplyDeletehttp://www.100forexbrokers.com/mini-micro-accounts-comparison
thanks
setec
Getting back to King Trade, at one time on Nov. 26, 2009 he had 10 lots open on the short GBP trade, some of those lots only open for a few minutes, others for 10 to 15 minutes. So things aren't always as they appear with him (and other providers too), in that a very large account would be needed to keep 10 lots open at the same time. I will say, though, that he really knows how to pick his spots (at inflection points), unlike some of the cowboy traders like LowestDD who seem to almost randomly choose to put on trades. Also King Trade doesn't trade all that ofter, but when he does he tends to go big.
ReplyDeleteSetec-
ReplyDeleteThanks for the great comments and for the link to
http://www.100forexbrokers.com/mini-micro-accounts-comparison
I'll see if I can figure out which of those work with Zulu apart from Alpari and FXDD.
I know that FXCM doesn't work with Zulu on Micro accounts, they require a Mini or 10K lots. I suspect its not enough money per pip to be worth their while.
I'll run a screen on GFX, Rascave and Euro-Asian and come back later. Thanks again,
Chris
Redford-
ReplyDeleteI think you are onto something in that we all focus on drawdown, but don't focus on the account size required to take all the signals from the provider.
That's the difference between the 5335 pips that King Trade shows on his public account versus the 613 pips that come back from my 2-lot, 180-pip filter.
More to come,
Chris
Setec-
ReplyDeleteI ran the 2-lot, 180-pip stop on your 3 providers and here's what I have:
racsave - Total Pips -1722, MaxDD -3509. He might be profitable in other lot sizes and stops, but not working for me.
GFX looks pretty awesome on the 2-lot, 180-pip stop. He has 1530 pips on 19 trades starting in August 2009 through today. The only fly in the ointment is that he has ~6,200 pips in open losses for his ~8,600 in closed profits. That means he's clearly letting his losers ride while taking his winners. Thats a non-starter for me. I don't know how he did so well on the 2-lot limit simulation - could be luck.
Euro-Asian Capital - I took a look at this guy a while back and i'm not impressed. On my 2-lot, 180-pip simulation, he has -3747 in closed trades and a max drawdown of -4792. Like racsave, he might be profitable with other parameters, but not mine.
Cheers,
Chris
Hi Chris,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comments above, appreciate you running them through your filter. Certainly makes a difference to the figures.
I have just applied for a micro with alpari uk and have the comission disclosure which is std spread plus 1.5pips (1.6 std) so thats 3.1pips not suprising there is a difference between demo and actual (demo probably doesnt factor that in). with most providers only bagging 10pips even with high success rate you would struggle to cover any losing trades....
demo account on zulu based on micro lots lists 100 micro lots as minimum per trade so unless this is different in the live zulu account I'm not sure a micro account is going to help...
will let you know once set up
thanks
setec
Chris
ReplyDeletePlease find to follow a copy of an email from zulu regarding micro lots and who they support/supports them.... hope this helps
Dear Sir,
we would like to inform you that Zulu trade supports all three lot sizes:standard,mini and micro,always depending on the broker.
For now we are collaborating only with the following 14 Brokers:
A) FXCM (standard and mini accounts)
B) AVA FX (standard and mini accounts)
C) FXDD (standard, mini and micro accounts)
D) GAIN Capital =(standard, mini and micro accounts)
E) IKON Royal ((standard and mini accounts, but with minimum deposit of 2,500 $)
F) InvestTech FX (standard, mini and micro accounts)
G) prime 4x (standard, mini and micro accounts)
H) Alpari (standard, mini and micro accounts)
I) ODL (standard, mini accounts)
J)ActivTrades (standard, mini and micro accounts)
K) Tadawulf (standard, mini and micro accounts)
L) CMS (standard, mini accounts)
\M)SaxoBank (standard, mini and micro accounts)
N) ACM (standard and mini accounts)
good luck
setec
Setec-
ReplyDeleteThat's very helpful, thanks very much.
I'll go down the list and do some diligence on all the providers who offer Micro lots and do a post with the results.
Thanks again for reading and for the info,
Chris
Setec-
ReplyDeleteJust re-read what you said about Micro lots - if they require 100 Micro lots per trade, then that's equivalent to a 100K lot size which wouldn't make any sense. I think its just their way to force you down the 100K lot size for demos to make the numbers more impressive. We'll see,
Chris
I will agree with the KingTrade evaluation. I don't like the multiple trades open at the same time, but the data looks good. I will have to estimate the gains on a smaller factor as I would only try one open lot for this guy at about 120 safe stop. Low DD (worst is -115), True Average gain pips is 21, and true average loss pips is -2. I will be happy to add this one to my demo for Dec. 1 lot 120 safe stop.
ReplyDeleteHi Chris,
ReplyDeleteI have emailed Zulu and they confirmed on the demo they adjust all trades to 1 standard lot so standard = 1 mini = 10 and micro = 100 they also confirmed that in a trading account you can trade just 1 micro lot. You are right it wouldnt have made sense but wanted to check all the same.
I have applied for the micro account with alpari and the extra spead of 1.5 was disclosed are you aware of any with a smaller spread/additional spread as this will make quite a dent especially the way most zulu traders trade....
cheers setec
Setec-
ReplyDeleteI checked with FXDD and they indicate no additional spread for micro lots. I have 7 more brokers to go, then i'll write up the results and post. Alpari is #5 on the list. Stay tuned,
Chris
Thanks Chris, I'm not sure if the extra pips are for micro account I think they are possibly for zulu to manage the account, not used them before so all new to me.
ReplyDeleteOn your live account is there extra spread to cover zulu
thanks
Anonymous-
ReplyDeleteZulutrade's cut (and the signal providers cut) come out of the spread normally paid to the FCM. There is no mark-up for Zulutrade customers (that i'm aware of).
Thanks,
Chris