Welcome back, Zulu-traders.We heard back today from our recent favorite Coolie 1997 who offers some perspective on his absence from active trading on Zulutrade and his change in style.
By way of background, Coolie 1997 entered the Zulutrade scene on June 29, 2009. Through the end of September 2009, he racked up an impressive 2000+ pips. He was able to pull in pips from a variety of pairs rarely seen on Zultrade such as NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD just to name a few. Even more impressive was that he did so with a remarkably small amount of drawdown. His success landed him in the top-10 providers on Zulutrade (by user count) which is a pretty impressive accomplishment in such a short period of time.
Anyway, after my buddy Townjet over at http://www.zulutrade-top.blogspot.com/ had an excellent September with Coolie I jumped on the Coolie bandwagon. Since adding Coolie to my live account back on 10/13, i'm now down almost -700 pips down sending my account to fresh lows. Depressed by this change of character, I posted Coolie what's the deal? and Townjet posted Putting a hold on Coolie 1997 both in the last 2 weeks.
Coolie has commented today as follows:
Hi Tcxmon,
Sorry for a long absense.
I have been seeking what trade style is the best for Zulu and me. Zulu users like short term gain, and my real trade style is very long one. The change of trade style made the users' lot smaller.
The total lots of all the users became 10-15%. Even though my job prevents me from trading 24 hours a day, the answer is almost 1), not 2).Sorry again for a sudden change and a big loss, please use me effectively by putting stop order, betting small lot, etc.
See you sometime,
coolie1997
So Coolie has retreated to a longer-term trading style. In terms of his recent performance, he has closed +357 pips since I dropped him, but he has -334 pips in open losses. His open losses are about 12% of his total closed profits since account opening back in July. He's nowhere near "risky provider" status (where Max Drawdown exceeds closed profit), but he's clearly at a higher drawdown rate than we have seen historically. But he does lend some long term perspective to currency trading with larger tolerance for drawdown.
Anway, we thank Coolie for his comments and wish him all the best with his trading.
Stay tuned for the weekly update,
Tcxmon
Good evening,
ReplyDeleteLet me show you some series of my real trades which I named 単純売買 or "a simple trade" and started in 2003. This trade style is called repeat-if-done recently (in Japan).
Take a look at my trades.
http://www.geocities.jp/coolie1997/audnzd-l1e.html
Start buying AUD/NZD from the rate of 2.145.
If AUD becomes weak untli 2.130, then make another position.
Everytime the rate decreases by 0.015 open a new position.
Everytime the rate increases by 0.015 close the youngest position until the rate becomes 2.160.
You can choose any pairs, any starting point, any width to make a new position, either long or short.
coolie1997
Thanks for the info. I've got to say coolie, that your method of longer term trading makes the most sense out of pretty much any method I've seen. Typically, you don't see that type of management in a trading strategy, and I can see why it is a longer term strategy. You have taken something that makes the market move and used it to trade a currency pair. The rate is a big factor in currency movement. Looks like you are doing better this week in your trades, and I am sorry I missed out on them in my real account. I will continue to keep an eye on your trading.
ReplyDeleteCoolie-
ReplyDeleteThanks for the information. This looks like you are "scaling in" to a long AUD/NZD position buying more as it goes down and taking profits as it moves up.
To do this, you need to have long-term confidence that the pair is going to move higher. You also have to have confidence the pair is not going to keep going lower enough to wipe out your account or cause enough pain that you decide to exit the position at a loss.
I'm not sure whether your confidence comes from fundamental analysis, technical analysis or some combination of the two, but it seems to be working for you in this case.
Also, I noticed that on Thursday and Friday 11/5 and 11/6, you had 2 trades that were short-term in nature. Since we have only a limited number of lots we can allocate to you as a provider, we can't be sure what type of trade you are putting on - a long-term high-drawdown trade - or a short-term medium-drawdown type trade.
I've stopped using you as a provider because you seem to have switched to longer-term trades with higher drawdown. But now I see you are doing short-term trades as well. This leaves me confused as to your trading style and I don't have the confidence to follow your signals automatically because I don't know which style you are following.
Let us know your comments. Thanks very much for reading.
Tcxmon
Tcxmon,
ReplyDeleteIf I buy USD believing to be high and it becomes high in a short period, it will be a short-term trade. If it takes long, it will be a long-term trade. This is the main reason of a mix of long-term and short-temr trade currently.
EUR/USD is 1.48 and if you think it will go up to 1.50, then what do you do? You may make a long position.
After you do that, suppose EUR/USD goes down to 1.46. What do you do? Do you close the position with a loss?
If you don't have a 1.48 position, which do you do at 1.46, you buy or you sell? Since 1.46 is cheaper than 1.48, you should buy.
When you have a position you sell, when you don't have a position you buy. Isn't this strange?
By the way I feel better if you are not my user.
Regards,
coolie1997
Coolie-
ReplyDeleteOkay, I think I understand what you are doing now. Your time horizon (long term or short term) is based on your view of the pair and where it stands with respect to your price target.
If its low, you buy. If you buy and it goes higher you sell. If you're already long and it goes down, you stay with it and expect a rebound.
Based on that I will follow your open positions and try to take advantage of your view on the direction of the pair.
Thanks very much for your comments,
Tcxmon