Welcome back Zulu-traders.If you've been reading this blog lately, its turned into a bit of a love-fest for Coolie1997. Until now he's been a bit of a mystery with no presence on Twitter or elsewhere.
Anyway, he's now surfaced in some comments to my post below "Coolie 1997 rises to the top". We can't be 100% sure its him - but he seems genuine enough
Here are the detail of the exchange:
Anonymous said...
I also like to continue winning for all of you, but it depends on my sixth sense（笑）.
October 11, 2009 7:17 AM
Tcxmon said...
Anonymous-
Okay, I get the reference to your sixth sense and the funky characters.
Coolie - if that's you, drop us another hint or something. The more we know about you, the more confident we are in your abilities. Your record is impressive, but your description doesn't give us much to go on.
Cheers, Tcxmon
October 12, 2009 6:05 PM
Anonymous said...
My Japanese profile says the same thing in detail.
Tonight I will tell you some more things... using an English dictionary.
Please wait till then. Bye now.
October 12, 2009 9:14 PM
Anonymous said...
Coolie is not me. It's my son born in 1997（笑）.
You may not see （笑） right in your screen. It means sort of lol, but not so loud.
Anyway, I am not a professional trader. My real trades are swap-point purposed long-term ones. Zulu trades are not real because I am not confident in my abilities as you are.
My (almost) only strategy at Zulu is to increase real users. For example, if users don't like me to hold two or more positions of the same currency pair at the same time, I will not.
And of course users like such signal providers who make profit constantly. So I'm trying to do that.
My profile of Zulu is basically true. I don't believe that you can forcast future rate by analysing past movement. So I am not interested in technical analysis and don't have knowledge of that. I don't use any systems either.
Then what are grounds for me to buy and sell? Sixth sense is not 100%（笑）.
I'll tell you some more about it tomorrow.
If you have any questions, please ask me. I will answer almost anything.
See you tomorrow. Father19??
October 13, 2009 4:18 AM
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An interesting response to be sure. Okay here's what we know:
1) He's from Japan and the funky characters in his profile are Japanese characters not redendering properly in my browser
2) Coolie is his son and he was born in 1997
3) He's agnostic about both fundamental and technical analysis and instead relies on his 'Sixth Sense" for trading.
This last one is both reassuring and scary at the same time.
How can someone without a system make 574 pips with 20 straight winners across 10 different currency pairs with no drawdown more of more than 100 pips?
I don't know and I suppose that's the point. Its pretty hard to out smart the crowd in currency trading competing with the likes of Barclays and Goldman Sachs just to name two.
He might as well be counting tea leaves or duck feathers. In any case, he meets our criteria for a signal provider, so what else do we need know?
Let's face it, trading on Zultrade is a leap of faith and they only thing we have to go on is his record. And unlike the victims of a Ponzi-scheme, we have the stop-loss in place to protect our capital.
In any case, Coolie 1997 is open for questions. So readers, if you have any questions please feel free to leave a comment below and perhaps Coolie will be kind enough to answer. In the meantime, let's hope he keeps up his winning ways.
Hi Coolie1997.
ReplyDeleteI just wondered aproximately how many live traders you have/how many mini-lots?
Peter
About 3) my sixth sense is bassed on fundamental analysis and a kind of data analysis. An example of data analysis is in here : http://www.geocities.jp/coolie1997/hozon/correl.html
ReplyDeleteIt was made two years ago and recently correlation between EUR and CHF is very strong.
coolie1997
Peter,
ReplyDeleteFor now the approximate number of live traders is 220 out of 560 users (340 is demo). 220 includes traders either "Enabled" is no or "Receiving trades" is no, so real live users are around 150.
Account type is mini for all the users. The number of lot varies from 0.1 to 10. Total lots are around 140.
Coolie-
ReplyDeleteThanks for revealing more about your method.
The correlation graph makes a lot of sense and can be expressed as a matrix with all the currencies on each axis.
At the intersection of EUR/EUR the correlation is 1 of course. At the intersection of USD/CHF (based on your diagram) the number would be 0.79 meaning a mildly positive correlation.
Once you have that, you add a fundmental view (AUD or NZD strenghtening for example) then you can go long those pairs versus the ones they are negatively correlated with (AUD or CHF for example).
It adds a whole new angle of analysis and give some insight in how you are able trade multiple pairs successfully versus providers that trade just one pair.
Thanks again for the insight!
Yes, Tcxmon
ReplyDeleteI made a matrix before a graph. A graph may be easier to understand for readers of this blog.
When you treat correlation, just be careful that a value of correlation tells you only a direction, not the size.
Hi all,
ReplyDeleteI am a fan of this blog and becoming a fan of Zulu (starting live account soon), partially because I chose coolie1997 as my provider. :D
Since I happen to speak Japanese and stambled upon this post, I thought, "heck, why don't i just translate his Japanese profile in zulu in English" so here it goes:
"Thank you for joining my trade. I started FX on 2002 so at least I have long experience in this. Timing to buy/sell are both based on my 'feeling'. I just keep looking at quotes table flickering, and make assumption that it will go up or down. I tend to go against the trend than follow. For loss stop, I tend to set around -90 pips, and I usually keep my position for few hours to few days. To be cosiderate to you (ppl who are taking on my signal), I will try to make at least +10 pips in each trade b/c you probably have to pay few pips to your broker, etc. ---------- 7 year experience. no technical, no system. Rarely to see charts, but quote table. sixth sence trade. ------- Below is just a random copy of news just to fill the profile space. Followings are not my profile ------ (then random news article)"
I hope this helps everyone. Happy trading!
(*and below Japanese is basically me communicating to Coolike1997 that I hope it was not outta line that i transalted his profile in English).
Coolike1997さん、このブログの記事で「Coolie1997さんのトレードに期待しているがZulutradeのProfileが日本語なのでどういったことが書かれているかわかんないんだよね。」と書かれていたので、上のとおり英語に直してみました。ご迷惑でなければよいのですが。
それではトレードがんばってください。期待しております！（笑
------
by Otihika the Japanese bystander
Otihika-
ReplyDeleteThanks very much, we appreciate the tranlation.
Regards,
Tcxmon
Thanks, Otihika-san.
ReplyDelete全然迷惑ではありません。ありがとうございました。
Another analysis and strategy tonight.
You can export my trade history from Zule. Let's play around with recent 20 winning streak.
A sum of highest profits is 805 pips. A sum of worst drawdowns is -624. Total gained pips is 574. What do you think?
Total lost pips could be 400. This shows I'm not good at making a new position. What I have done are two simple things : (1)Holding a position if it contains loss (2)Settling a position if it has gain.
In this strategy (is it a strategy??) you should make a position which will not go one direction. Movement of the rate should go up and down, up and down. Just wait until you can settle down with some profits.
Coolie-
ReplyDeleteAgreed that you are closing positions which are profitable and keeping open positions which are unprofitable until they become profitable. That's pretty standard and all Zulutrade providers do that.
What is important is that you keep the drawdown, percent profitable and average profit in a happy balance such that:
AverageProfit * WinningTrades > StopLossValue
I call this the "sustainability equation."
For my stop of 180 pips, the numbers look like
30 * 7 > 180
In other words, you have to earn on average 30 pips and win more than 1-(1/7) (about 84%) to be profitable. So far you have been able to do that since your public profile shows wins 87% of the time with an average profit of almost 26 pips.
So its important that you keep the percent win high and the pips per winning trade above 20 pips, ideally closer to 50 pips.
We don't want to see winning trades turn into loosing trades, but (under normal conditions) once a trade is +50 pips in your favor, it doesn't make sense to make it run into a looser or take less than 30 pips profit.
Every so often currencies get on a major run and go straight up or down rapidly. Assuming you are on the right side of that trade, you should stay with that for 100 or more pips profit.
Also keep mixing up the pairs and take advantage of the multi-currency global view that you have. That sets you apart from other traders that trade just one pair (GBP/JPY mostly).
Thanks again and let's hope your winning record continues.
Regards,
Tcxmon
Good morning, Tcxmon
ReplyDeleteDoes this graph give you some new ideas?
http://www.geocities.jp/coolie1997/hozon/cur-index.html
You see AUD and NZD got high this year. CHF and EUR move in almost same way. USD is the weakest currency so far (although Dow got 10,000).
Good morning, Coolie-san.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the graph. If you have no objections, I will extract the graph and start a new blog post for further comments.
Once we get to 10 comments, its time for a new post. We should get some good discussion started from that.
Also, we don't want this discussion to distract you from your trading, so please focus on that first and this blog second.
We appreciate your input. Regards,
Tcxmon
Wow. I am at somewhat of a loss as what to say. Very interesting approach to currency trading. All I can say is that I appreciate the good results (my account appreciates it as well :) ). I am interested in knowing more about how you set up your 'correlation'. I am guessing that last graph link you posted describes a lot. At any rate I pleased to have a live account trading with your signals and I hope you continue to do well. I look forward to knowing more about what you do.
ReplyDeleteHi I am new and I thnk I will put Coolie1997 as one of my signal providers.
ReplyDeleteRocketpf
Peter-
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comments and hopefully you were able to avoid the short GBP/USD trade. Cheers,
Tcxmon